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Bayesian time series forecasting : Trend prediction (part 1)

The music that was about to be played was certainly not well-designed or rendered using great technical skills. The final recording contains moments where sounds of a rooster, a cow, a whinnying horse, a trombone and a cornet were imitated by a clarinet. This recording is popularly recognized as the first jazz recording in history. Although these young musicians claimed that they had invented jazz , the truth is that they had learned this genre of music from some New Orleans African American musicians. The origins of jazz can be traced back to the second half of the 19 th century. Back then, New Orleans was a port city where people from all over the world gathered to socialize and share music.

The True Origins of Jazz
Ziziphus (Sidr)
Как построить мостки, помост, причал у водоёма своими руками
Омские мастера ножеделы
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The True Origins of Jazz - Jazz For Insomniacs
Ziziphus (Sidr) – PHD
Dai Kati Banxas!! | Comedy Poem - Writers Chautari
3D печать - Новости - 3D модели для 3d принтера

When we hear about time series forecasting, it usually needs some knowledge on stationarity with a few statistical tests, some intuition on the time series models to build and a lot of domain knowledge! Besides, the impact of such a simple formula is huge! The aim of this article is not to teach from scratch time series analysis nor bayesian data analysis but rather to share a simple use case on what is possible when we deal with time series with bayesian thinking. The way we usually build a model goes along the following pattern :.

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